Project Scorpio will finally get its first public showing at tonight's Microsoft E3 press conference, and market research firm IHS Markit has predicted that Microsoft's new machine will cost 429 in the UK.
So far, other estimates have pegged the 4K console at around 499, making IHS' estimation a little more optimistic than most. However, even if the final price does end up being higher than 429, IHS says it shouldn't make a significant impact on the console's overall sales.
"We currently assume a Project Scorpio price point of $499/€499/429," said IHS Markit's Piers Harding-Rolls. "Crucially, even if the price point is revealed to be higher than this, we do not expect this to impact sales of the console at launch based on our current pricing assumption. Xbox enthusiasts will pay significant sums to get hold of the latest and greatest.
"If Project Scorpio pricing is below $400 – although Microsoft's profit margin targets makes this significantly less likely, its share of overall Xbox One sales will edge up as the differential between the Xbox One S and Project Scorpio narrows. Sony was aggressive with its pricing for the PS4 Pro and this resulted in more than 20 per cent share of all PS4 sales in the opening months of release. This has subsequently fallen as supply has become constrained but is forecast to improve once factory output is increased."
As for Project Scorpio's forecast, IHS says it expects the machine to hit 500,000 global sales in Q4 2017, pointing to a more modest launch than the Nintendo Switch, which hit 2.74m worldwide after just one month on shelves.
"The expected price differential between Project Scorpio and Xbox One S is high enough to reduce the impact of the new platform on the broader console audience," Harding-Rolls continues. "Project Scorpio is not the device to re-ignite Xbox One sales in continental Europe and to gain market share from Sony in key sales territories outside of USA and UK."