Ted Pollak, JPR Senior Analyst Game Industry, has developed a revenue forecast for the virtual goods market covering the United States, South Korea and Worldwide for the years 2007– 2012. This will be one of the hottest revenue growth sectors of the video game industry; which will account for billions of dollars in sales over the coming years. Pollak’s methodology consisted of setting a baseline using revenue data obtained through industry contacts; and then forecasting the growth of various categories of virtual goods based on international growth patterns and differing gaming cultures. The total value of goods exchanged, or“Gross Merchandise Volume” (GMV) is also addressed in the forecast on a worldwide basis.
The forecast is titled: The Market for Virtual Items, Currency, Real Estate, Add-Ons, Levels, Characters, and Accounts
The main sections of the forecast include:
Primary revenue to publishers
Secondary revenue to publishers
Secondary revenue to 3rd parties
Sub-sections for each main section include:
Small Items (Including Currency)
Large Items (Including Real Estate)
Additionally, for 3rd party revenue, Pollak estimates the worldwide breakdown of:
Business to Customer Revenue and GMV (aka Retail) and,
Customer to Customer Revenue and GMV (aka Auctions)
Additional Revenue available to 3rd party providers (e.g. custom items, advertising, etc.) is also forecast
Also included in the forecast for 2006– 2011 are:
MMOG Software/Box Revenue
MMOG Subscription Revenue and,
Worldwide MMOG Player Base
Additional data includes commission and estimated gross margin on secondary market transactions (for publishers and 3rd parties) as well as secondary market retail markup.
The price for this forecast is $2500.