News
Struggles will continue for Blu-Ray, analyst claims
Ben Parfitt Feb 20 2008, 10:59am
Comments (30)
Victory over HD-DVD just the first step in ongoing consumer battle
Analyst firm Strategy Analytics has stated that although the battle has been won, the war is far from over for Sony’s hi-def disc format Blu-Ray.
Though Blu-Ray now has a clear run in the hi-def battleground, convincing consumers who already boast extensive DVD collections to switch to a new format is a separate challenge altogether.
“Blu-Ray disc has passed its first real test by beating HD-DVD,” principal analyst at Strategy Analytics David Mercer stated. “But a much bigger challenge now lies ahead if Blu-Ray is to become as successful as DVD, and content owners, retailers and manufacturers must now demonstrate that they can work together to promote Blu-Ray effectively.”
However, recently Blu-Ray sales passed the two million barrier in Europe – and faster than DVD managed it, too. And let’s not forget the emergence of downloadable content, which is already starting to rival disc media.
Strategy Analytics now predicts that cumulative sales of stand-alone Blu-Ray players, excluding games consoles, PCs and other devices, will reach more that 100 million units worldwide by 2012.













Comments
“Non-gamers”
Posted by: _-MrT-_ - Feb 20, 12:25pm
The non-gaming market is certainly going to be a tough one to crack. I do wonder if the step from DVD to BR represents a large enough jump in quality to persuade non-gamers to invest. I think it will be a slow process.
“Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Reythor - Feb 20, 12:58pm
Surely the massive and ever growing popularity of downloadable content via services such as iTunes is a bit of a worry for Sony and the other companies invested in Blu-Ray? Sony are headed into MiniDisc territory again here… Sure it's high quality, sure it works - but will anyone be bothered?
Why would I want to start a brand new collection of plastic discs and plastic boxes when I could just have it neatly organised and readily available to watch via my computer / tv / iPod? No more "where's the disc that should be in this box?" issues…
If Blu-Ray takes off at all in a mainstream way I will be so surprised I'll eat my DVD collection. Which will take ages.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Redh3lix - Feb 20, 1:22pm
Why would music downloads be a worry to Sony, Reythor? Does iTunes provide high definition music?
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: _-MrT-_ - Feb 20, 2:01pm
He's simply illustrating that the download market is growing. iTunes is making larger and larger strides into the video market (the BBC are the latest to get onboard). Look too at Microsoft's growing movie downloads service. Perhaps Blu-Ray needed to arrive a couple of years earlier?
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Reythor - Feb 20, 2:32pm
Hello Redh3lix, when you've caught up with the 21st century please feel free to come back with some worthwhile insights.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Reythor - Feb 20, 2:35pm
In fact, I am staggered by your comment!!! I take it you have no connection with the music, games or indeed any industry?
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: WazWii - Feb 20, 2:40pm
Yeah and what about the Playstation Network? When the time comes for digital downloads, Sony will be ready to provide video/music and game downloads. The process has already started. However for now until then Blu Ray Disc will be the 'number one' choice for HD movie content. And i have talked to various hardcore movie 'buffs' and they state they want a physical collection, not some 'intangible' electronic service. I think the bigger thing is this. Sony has Blue Ray and Digital Distribution. Either way its covered both bases. Example? Gran Turismo Prologue as a full game download on its network. It's already there...
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Reythor - Feb 20, 2:47pm
I wish everyone involved all the best of luck with Blu-Ray.
But online distribution of music, video and games is the only way forward that makes any kind of sense. It will be a short lived victory for this, the last of the optical disc based formats.
Take a look at Steam, iTunes, and even XBox Live Marketplace and you shouldn't require much more evidence that selling plastic discs in plastic boxes is soon going to seem like a very wasteful and old fashioned method of selling content to consumers.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Reythor - Feb 20, 2:50pm
"When the time comes for digital downloads, Sony will be ready"
That's the funniest thing I've heard all day.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: _-MrT-_ - Feb 20, 2:55pm
The desire for a 'physical collection' is certainly very true at the moment, but will probably date faster than you think WazWii. Give it a couple of years...
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: MrJolly - Feb 20, 3:50pm
One only has to look at the likes of You tube to learn that people will accept **** quality for convinience and cheapness in fact they do the same with pirate DVD's - 2-3 quid and no need to wait or haul the family out to the local flea pit.
I'd have personally thought that the type of people that really want an upgrade over DVD and actualy can either tell the difference or care, will be those who have a fast net connection and are technically savvy so they will go for a downloaded solution if it is convinient enough and at the right price.
Still a market for for a physical product though BUT with on demand cable and Sat services and internet downloads I doubt it'll be anywhere as big and profitable as DVD was, lets face it, DVD was the CD of it's generation an "upgrade" for convinience and clarity and allowed the media companies to sell people the media they'd already paid for years ago, you cannot see the same thing happening with blu-ray.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: MrJolly - Feb 20, 4:05pm
Record companies are worried about Apple and itunes, Wired carried an article that claimed that in about a years time 40-50% of all music sold would be through itunes which basically would lock them in and mean they couldn't mount a reasonable counter to itunes and apple, they don't get the margins and the back cat sales they used to.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Tosche - Feb 20, 5:02pm
There will always be a place for physical media. Especially among the older generations that may not have a super-fast broadband connection and home-server to store things on, they may not want to watch a low-quality film due to poor eye sight. Also the physical media provides a perfect gift to someone - can you imagine on Xmas day when Mummy goes to give her son a present and says to him "I've bought you the latest Disney film - but you'll have to wait 3 hours for it to download before you can watch it..."
Digital mainstream distribution will increase - but not to the detriment of DVDs or Blu-Rays in this console lifetime. And even if they do, the PS3 at least will at least be equipped to handle it as you could quite easily upgrade to larger hard drive and it already has the network port built in.
VHSs were only really replaced by DVDs in the last 8 years and the beauty of BR players is that they can play DVDs too but of course a DVD player couldn't play a VHS tape. No one will be expected to replace their existing DVD collection with BRs as was the case with the upgrade to DVD. DVDs, as we know, upscale to 1080i on a BR player and look good enough. But BRs are here for those that want movies in even higher definition and in a convenient way. DVDs will get phased out over time, but they won't get chucked away like VHS tapes. But it will happen when every "DVD" player you buy in store just happens to be a BR player and so the market won't be there for DVDs - especially as mass produced BRs will bring down the prices. This is likely to happen in the next couple of years so we could effectively say that DVDs have had a 12 year life up to that point. Digital distribution on a wide scale and to the performance levels that people are going to want to demand isn't going to happen for at least 10 years, let's be honest. Which gives BR plenty of time to become the number one digital media format. If BR does what DVDs have done in this time, then you can't say it wouldn't have been worth it. I for one aren't prepared to sit around waiting for my ISP to provide me with a 100mbps uncontested DSL connection for £9.99 a month and for the price of a 10TB drive to drop to under £100 as that's what I think I'll need to watch high quality movies to the convenience levels that a shiny disk can provide.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: WazWii - Feb 20, 5:25pm
Reythor
How is it the funniest thing? It's very real. Go onto the Playstation store and see how you can download games and video. The infrastructure is in place. I give you the example again. Gran Turismo 5 Prologue. So all that remains is what? For content negotiations. The PS3 i think represents Sony at a head point, where it has brilliant hardware, yet one can argue software is it weaker point. Considering Sony knows this its no suprise its working 24/7 to get ready a video/demand service. I think its very real, Howard Stringer has already stated the importance of the PS3 and the 'expansion' of the network. And this is not new. The 'network' was the end point of Ken Kutaragi's vision, where you would download music, games, video etc.
Yes its taking time, but right now i just say this. Sony has the best of both worlds. It will push blu ray and also the Playstation Network. No real arguments anymore.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Reythor - Feb 20, 6:08pm
Wazwii,
Do I have to explain to you what's funny about this…
"When the time comes for digital downloads, Sony will be ready"
What century are you writing from?
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted: Feb 20, 6:31pm
@ Reythor
For somebody to say that digital downloads are just around the corner is laughable itself. Wasn't you one of the 'HD will win' team along with Ryu Hayabusa?
Physical media will be around for quite a few years yet.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted: Feb 20, 6:32pm
@ Reythor
For somebody to say that digital downloads are just around the corner is laughable itself. Wasn't you one of the 'HD will win' team along with Ryu Hayabusa?
Physical media will be around for quite a few years yet.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: WazWii - Feb 20, 9:48pm
@ Reythor
Wow i am amazed at your arrogance. I site examples again and again and yet you come back with one line un-educated sentences. Dissapointing.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: _-MrT-_ - Feb 21, 12:45pm
I still believe physical media will date quicker than you think. As for the example of Disney films for Christmas - I think a lot for kids would be delighted at vouchers to buy three films online. And tinternet is only getting quicker, like.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: aMIGA_dUDE - Feb 21, 1:29pm
People like to own viewable things. Download movie's are a problem
1) Hardware fixed, to easy a disk. Go down friends place and play it.
2)Bandwidth limits on ISP's, people will not like when start see the hidden cost.
3)There limit that can store system's HD, Blu-Ray it just another disk no such a big issue.
4) Easy to take disk to work and share it with friend.
Saying BBC iPlayer is really not the same, you do not pay to download it or view it. In fact you do not even need a TV licence to download content form iPlayer in UK and that is the law.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Reythor - Feb 21, 4:32pm
@ Wazwii…
You spelt 'disappointing' wrong, which is in itself disappointing.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Ecky - Feb 21, 4:57pm
@Reythor
Jovial corrections of spelling and grammar are the last refuge of the beaten.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Alias - Feb 21, 5:14pm
ecky, there's no need to 'troll' around these MUDs, we're trying to have a serious debate here.
Plus, my willy is bigger than yours
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Reythor - Feb 21, 5:19pm
There was nothing jovial about my comment, Ecky.
Shall we try and get this 'discussion' back on track? Or are we beyond that point now?
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: WazWii - Feb 21, 9:14pm
Yeah sure hows about you contribute?
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Redh3lix - Feb 22, 10:49am
Wow Reythor! You clearly have a sense of humour and understand when someone's taking the mickey.
Fancy meeting up for a drink sometime?
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Tosche - Feb 22, 12:01pm
@19 - What, a child under the age of 5 is really going to appreciate vouchers and waiting around for hours whilst the film downloads!? I'm sure Mum is going to be so happy with the kid running around for that length of time.
As I said before we will eventually get film on demand and will just be able to turn on the tv, pick a movie from a massive library and it will start downloading/streaming instantly. But it ain't gonna happen for a while. And before it does, we've got Blu-ray.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: _-MrT-_ - Feb 22, 5:30pm
@27
Actually, I can do that right now through my Virgin+ box.
And would you be upset with iTunes vouchers for Christmas because it meant you had to download stuff rather than put it straight into the DVD player?
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Damocles - Feb 23, 2:40pm
Great news that one of the formats has won the first battle. Downloadable content is viable, but this won't be the battle that everyone thinks it will be as it's two different methods of distribution. I don't stream media all around the house, so if I want the kids to watch something in their rooms then a disc is preferable. Also the download capping by ISP would have to removed for this to really take off in a big way. At present BT is thinking of increasing the charges for it unbundled local loops to other ISP's and this also includes the amount of data that they charge ISPs of data throughput. Virgin media has the right idea, but if everyone jumped ship to them then they will start to impose the UAP again as they did a few years ago when it was NTL.
“Re: Firing Lasers at plastic, 80s style!”
Posted by: Pulkit Chandna - Feb 25, 3:42pm
I believe as far as movies are concerned, Blu-ray will be the preferred medium for a while, at least, until bandwidths improve to make blink-of-a-eye downloads possible. But digital distribution certainly capture more and more market, as companies look to tap markets like Asia, infested with piracy. Digital distribution can reign in on piracy, though with some limitations. Gamerwtell Writer