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‘Core gamer market is saturated’

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‘Core gamer market is saturated’

Casual gaming's success is disguising traditional sector's limitations, says exclusive IDG report

IDG Research obtained by MCV states that the core gamer market is saturated – and unless more publishers and platform holders embrace casual gaming, the industry could stagnate.

The claims are backed up by IDG figures which reveal that the last few years of industry expansion have been driven almost exclusively by Nintendo formats. Without Wii and DS hardware and software sales, the overall international market actually declined by seven per cent last year.

“The middling performance of the 360, coupled with the PS3’s slow start has led IDG to the conclusion that the core gamer market is in fact saturated,” states the report.

“This generation of consoles has sold on a par with the prior era. If you strip out the Wii installed base, the current cycle would have tracked lower than early stages of the prior cycle. Most of the industry growth in recent years has been driven by the DS and the Wii.

“On a combined hardware and software basis, the global market grew by 21 per cent with the DS and the Wii in 2007, but declined by seven per cent without the two Nintendo platforms,” adds the IDG  report. “In short, the balance of power has significantly shifted towards Nintendo."

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To view the full IDG hardware and software sales forecasts for 2008 and 2009, click here.

What Complete Tosh

posted by Bruceongames Apr 25, 2008 at 4:26 pm
1
Bruceongames

There is a lot more to gaming than just boxed console titles at retail. And people like steam aren't even telling you what their figures are.

Then there is the 100 millionish owners of past generation consoles who are waiting till the right point in this cycle to trade up. Previous generation performance says they will.

And just talking in my social circle I know that the demographic of gamers is expanding. Everyone knows this, surely?

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Re: What Complete Tosh

posted by Stato Apr 25, 2008 at 4:57 pm
2
Stato

Brilliant sum. "Industry-Nintendo=Stagnant". Did they charge a 5 year old to come up with this gem of analysis?

So much flawed reasoning in this. How can you remove Wii sales and say that the remainder is a favourable indication of how the market would be without it? Undoubtedly a proportion of those "lost" Wii sales would go to X360 and PS3: not every Wii owner is the New Casual Generation... Sure, the current boom would probably not exist, but to say the market would be stagnat is flawed.

And to lump DS in there as well is just ludicrous. Handheld consoles should be compared with handheld consoles. Giving us DS vs. GBA stats would be more meaningful.

Still, why let fine details get in the way of some End Is Nigh statistics?

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Geez - Lame

posted by cirej2000 Apr 25, 2008 at 6:04 pm
3
cirej2000

Wow! Another bad gaming industry article. "Wii owners buy no games!", "Xbox360 is doomed!!", "Without the Wii's Casual Gamers, there would be no gaming industry!!".

Without Zelda, Smash Brothers, Mario Galaxy and Mario Kart - even though they are noob friendly - I wager that a few million Wii's would not have been sold.

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Re: Geez - Lame

posted by Burner Apr 25, 2008 at 7:52 pm
4
Burner

Lest not forget good old Tiger games LCD screened efforts if we had those the market now would be Whooosh! PHE-NOM -INAL. the market is obviosuly suffering becuase of this lack of LCD.

Seriously though, I don't think that people that have brought the Wii would have made the transition to the 360 or PS3 if Nintendos box hadnt been available. The demographic is shifting, trust me, The women In my departamnet at work all rave about THEIR Wii's and how the aced mariokart and took on House of The Dead a year ago they would have sneered at me for mentioning Halo and MSG et al. Love em or hate em Nintendo are offering something different and its paying off.

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Nope.

posted by beemoh@gmail.com Apr 25, 2008 at 8:32 pm
5
beemoh@gmail.com

You take Nintendo out of the equation and you have an inaccurate portrayal of the rest of the games industry.

While Nintendo have successfully expanded the gamer market, Wii would not be the multi-million dollar success story that it is if it wasn't for the core gamer propping up those extra sales the casual market has brought it.

If any market is "saturated", it's the casual market itself, as shown by the fact that nobody's buying any of the identikit Wii Sports clones that are filling a little bit too much of the shelves.

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Re: Nope.

posted by Jon Hare May 01, 2008 at 4:12 pm
6
Jon Hare

What this article shows is the desparate need for a healthy mid price market. Where development budgets are somewhere between the $1 million or less offered for casual games and $10 million plus offered for AAA games.

The way for developers and publishers to make money most effectively is to seed their own IP in the market. And you can make 4 times as many mid price games for $2,500,000 as you can for a $10,000,000 game and if one of them is any good and the IP is original, it will pay for the other 3 and set up a valuable NEW brand that is industry grown and can become an AAA brand by its sequel(s) (Look at GTA as a classic example of this).

It seems few people are willing to risk $10million on one horse bred in their own stable. But $10million on 4 horses gives you much better odds if you select the right trainers and jockeys

Unless we find a realistic financial formula for building more non-casual, non-licensed brands as an industry, the variety of AAA games of the future will be ever decreasing and stagnation is unavoidable.

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