All the while there are places like GAME and gamestation and the indie market where people can trade their games in, there is no chance that downloadable games will over take retail.

Downloadable games are great, i've got loads of arcade games on my 360, but they were all novalty purchases from the early days, when you sit down and think that once you've finished them there is no market value to them

10-15 years too early Microsoft.

Countries like the UK and the US dont have the right infrastructure yet to cope with download speeds of that scale.

Give it another 10 years for America, 15 years for the UK.

10-15 years too early? It'll be much sooner than that. 15 years ago only the earliest of adopters were getting internet connection in their homes - I remember as I was one of them. Look how far we've come and technology continues to increase its speed of evolution.

I downloaded an HD movie using Xbox Live the other day. The 5.4Gb took under two hours and I have a pretty normal 8mb line. Downloadable games may not be taking over in the next year or so but it'll be way faster than 10-15 years.

Also, the players who buy games first are the same as those that embrace new technology. If downloadable games are cheaper, they'll switch to downloading games. As a result, the second-hand market will start to diminish greatly because they're the people who sell off their games first and start the second-hand chain.

I hope your strategy for selling the future Xbox '720' :o) as a mass market machine, when all the games retailers have gone, is a good one.

Once you have lost the tens of thousands of retailers worldwide, who promote and sell hardware for virtually no margin, what are these games going to be played on? Or, are you going to sell them online as well?

Looks good on paper, but unless you propose to give the machines away for peanuts, you won’t have the network to make it a mass market machine.

Its hard to disagree on a directional basis. On-line monetisation will grow as a percentage of total monetisation. But i-tunes has failed to overtake the CD retail market, and on-line video is miles away from overtaking DVD rentals or sales revenue. Why not project a new harmony between bricks and clicks to optimise the consumer experience of shopping, trying, buying,sharing? Its far from impossible that all industry stakeholders could end up better off.

The movie companies have expanded and cinemas expanded since the emergence of TV, Video and the internet were proclaimed to be the downfall of Hollywood.

Smart retail will adapt. And the industry should help them do so.

Sorry, but Downloads will never take over, that's complete *******s.

One of the many reasons that put me off the Phantom console was the fact "downloads" mean you can only buy from one place, thus eliminating any pricing competition. and everyone loves finding a bargain, especially nowadays what with the World economy the way that its in.

Also a lot of people just feel safer with a physical hard copy, especially casual gamers as they feel if the game corrupts or they accidently delete it, its gone forever. I even feel that too to a point, even though I know its not true. (though MS's overly neurotic DRM is a pain in the arse)

Speed is not that an issue. Nobody said that you will click on the buy button and 2 minutes later you will be playing your game. You might buy the game and the console will start to download it in tbe background (even when your console will be in "stand buy"). You might be notice a couple of days later that your game is fully downloaded.

Technically, this should be possible today. When it will be the norm (and it will be). Nobody will complain about it. Hopefully, the game will be cheaper than retail games (no middle man) and could be release days before the retail release. So, nobody will complain about the fact that it takes ages to download.

I think this will be a mater of preference. I prefer to have a hard copy of anything I pay for really, I like things to have a physical presence. And If you delete your copy or your console gets stolen etc, people would be annoyed to wait a day to download their favourite game, never mind the other 10 they've bought and considering the size of blu-ray it may take a day.

I will not buy any downloadable games. Downloadable games are against the interest of the consumer as you will have only one place to buy your games...the server of your console's manufacturer! Most important of all, once you are done playing it, or if the game is not good, you cannot sell it! If you can't sell it, you never owned it.

@ Aristotel - that is probably one of the most logical things i've heard on this subject " if you cant sell it, you never owned it" kudos

Downloads are good. There's no doubt about that...but my broadband takes ages to download stuff and until the backbone of the network is fully fibred up there ain't no way that it would be worth doing.

Also, I'd probably be more interested and willing to download the content avaiable now if it wasn't for the fact that you need more storage space and the Xbox HDDs are way overpriced. Bring the HDDs price down so they are more affordable.

@ 3 - "Also, the players who buy games first are the same as those that embrace new technology. If downloadable games are cheaper, they'll switch to downloading games."

I don't entirley agree. This type of market will basically be a games version of iTunes. Yes, you make a few purchases off it, maybe of little arcade games and stuff, but any 'true' or 'hardcore' gamer is more likely going to want the physical product. Personally, I never use iTunes for more than a few freebies from coke vouchers sorta thing as I like to have a proper CD in my hands than just a burnt Tesco CD!

I'm not too sure about this. I agree that only buying from one vendor would eliminate competition but at the same time when you are paying for the game and NOT the shops overheads, staff wages, delivery charges and packaging the game should be a hell of a lot cheaper (in theory). Not that i ever see them dropping the prices like that as they know now that we are willing to pay £40+ for a game.

Not a big fan of digital media, its alright for DLC but when i hand over £40 i expect something tangible in return ... or atleast a kiss on the cheek :P

1/ Broad Band service's have to improve here 10 fold

2/ Larger HDD at no extra cost have to come as standard

3/ Video games will have to be a lot cheaper; no one is going to pay the same price for a download as a physical product.

4/ As long as there's a demand for trade-ins then physical media will continue to thrive

5/ Serious collectors/gamers will always opt for physical media over downloads, it's exactly the same for music & film.

"3/ Video games will have to be a lot cheaper; no one is going to pay the same price for a download as a physical product. "

Tell that to those people who bought GT5P online, they were paying MORE for the online version, yet they were still stupid enough to do so. Part of the attraction of the gaming community is the sheer volume of gullibility that exists in the consumers. You can sell some of these people absolutely anything.

Equating it to music is wrong, digital music works because music is portable, you can download a tune and take it with you. The crap quality doesn't matter as the systems playing them are poor quality (sound wise) anyway. You can also play the music on several systems from a single download. With games, it's one machine, one platform, no flexibility and the prices won't be that much (if any) cheaper than the deals you can get on the high street.

I don't want digital music and I certainly don't want digital games, the first company that goes totally digital doesn't get my money for their console. My choice... my money... it's that simple.

hmmm,
music downloads only overtook because of the file size of them some games like mgs4 come in at least 50 gig unless in the future hd space in in the millions well, it put some people off buying siren cus it was 9gb. plus yes xbl arcade maybe selling lots but they are alot cheaper then buyin from retail and not all kids have credit cards !!!!

will we be downloading food to my belly in 10yrs dont have to got out aoon the digital age is apon us

He's right..

just not yet.
you have to wait for most people to get a better connection than 1meg.

ill download stuff if its cheaper, plus then i can sit in my pants infront of my HD projector and never have to move again.

hmm, whatever. i don't know if all this "we will kick the ps3's ass" is such good PR, for numerous reasons.

as a hardcore gamer 360 has it all and with the new update there is no reson 4 a ps3 but b-ray is on my mind. i get free dvd rentals and games but the new dvds on line look good as i only have hd ready 1080i with no hdmi

"I certainly don't want digital games, the first company that goes totally digital doesn't get my money for their console. My choice... my money... it's that simple."

Speaking as both gamer and a retailer I completely agree.