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Will Wii 2 HD be the last ever console?

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Will Wii 2 HD be the last ever console?

Analyst predicts that big investments in current machines will see publishers resist new generation

Games industry analyst Michael Pachter has boldly stated that the current crop of games consoles may represent the end of the generational cycle we have become accustomed to – with the exception of the long-rumoured hi-def Wii.

“We do not expect a ‘new’ console in 2010, other than the long-rumoured high definition Wii, which is likely to upgrade the Wii to current console technology,” Pachter stated.

“We do not expect the ‘next’ generation to begin before 2013, if at all. We remain convinced that the publishers will resist the introduction of any video game hardware technology that requires a refresh of software, as the publishers have as yet to capitalize on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle.

“Because R&D costs are likely to flatten out with the benefits of a learning curve, we expect earnings leverage as the publishers are able to exploit R&D investments. In brief, we think that investors have it wrong so far this cycle, and think that investment in video game publishers will bear fruit for many years.”

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Tags: 2, 3, 720, generation, hd, ii, next, ps4, wii, xbox

New Consoles

posted by Martin ZXGamer May 05, 2009 at 7:54 pm
1
Martin ZXGamer

Interesting

I have often wondered with the current consoles available on the market, what can be done to make say a PS4 better than the PS3 that could justify a whole new machine. The jump from PS1 to PS2 was big, then PS2 to PS3, but now, with high definition graphics, interactive online playing, the dualshock 3 controller, what more is left to 'wow' the customer and importantly, get them spending enough to support a new generation.

I believe there is a lot of future for new generations of handhelds, perhaps these will merge with mobile phones, we will see, but I believe generation 8 will be a New DS (better graphics than current one), something from apple, something from microsoft (I'm surprised there isn't already a handheld xbox), a new PSP, a more reliable, but otherwise the same, 360 and a Wii 2 HD.

Martin
ZXGamer

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Backwards

posted by Linc May 05, 2009 at 9:16 pm
2
Linc

The next generation of hardware will likely be better described as the next itineration of current hardware.

What make a whole new device that disrupts current software production, costs more to manufacture, cost more to introduce to the public? All Sony and MS need is make PS3-2 and XB 540; they will just be badge PS4 and XB 720 respectively for the sake of gaining big splash sales.

The hardware will be better in most areas, and far more refined in area of online services. However, the biggest concept will be allowing developers to keep the same tools and ideas flowing uninterrupted. The idea is to make as little disruption as possible so developers have the smoothest transition ever and hopefully that all also make the consumer experience smoother as well.

A soft launch in other words that allows for cost saving, less of a disruptive bump, and new units that sell for far lower lunch prices. I’d be shocked in PS3-2 or XB 540 sold for more then $275. That should be the goal: better product for the lowest price.

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new consoles

posted by dennis May 06, 2009 at 9:29 am
3
dennis

Thats a fine statement, but arent we forgetting something? Nintendo is working on improvements like you mention.
Nintendo used the knowhow for its wii system and look what it brought them:) huge wii sales and high provits (something sony and m$ are missing still yet).
So what Prachter is talking about is already still happening in de consoleindustry (open up your eyes people) and the big N was there first

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OnLive is the future

posted by Dan May 06, 2009 at 10:23 am
4
Dan

OnLive is the future of video gaming, maybe not the OnLive platform itself but something similar.

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New consoles

posted by Paul May 06, 2009 at 10:30 am
5
Paul

Realistically the next generation of PS3 isn't going to be a PS4, it's going to be the seemingly side project that is Cloud. The as rumoured Live competitor. As we can as see from what's to come of the next version of PSP Sony are more looking towards the concept of Digital Download.

Xbox 360 is going to a 360 with a slightly better graphics card, and hopefully none of the problems the 360 has (RROD, E57) it'll also incorporate a BD-Drive if it wants to survive. It won't even be a Xbox 540, more like a "What we should have originally released Xbox 360" And with the 720 being rumoured also to be announced at very soon at E3

And the Wii, well I reckon it will have the biggest problem. With both Microsoft and Sony supposedly getting involved in Wii-like motion controllers/cameras that detect body movement etc, the Wii is going to have to come out with a unit that has graphics that match as well as somehow managing to grab the attention of there greatest asset the so called casual market.

Realistically getting the casual market to go out and the same console with better graphics could be the problem. I think the PS3 is going to be going into the "next generation" as the strongest. They have a multimedia mammoth that can provide for longer than the others. For PS3 the only HW change they'll have to make is adding a USB or providing better SW that allows for this digital download or digital streaming. Now all they have to do is spend the money that the other companies are going to be spending on HW on creating A+++ games. They do seem to be going to right way with the likes of God of War III, Gran Turismo 5 etc that should be getting released later this year or at latest early next year.

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Its all going digital...

posted by ukdazza May 06, 2009 at 1:23 pm
6

Ultimately I think that we will all see the PS3 stay around for a long time. They can update the firmware digitally and games and content can all be updated in the same way. I think that the PS3 will not be replaced for a long time and will be developed from a digital perspective.

The XB360 will be replaced once more adding Bluray n more storage etc but then they will be level with the PS3 HW wise and will follow with the digital updating route.

OnLive is going to be huge and I suspect it will be bought up by Microsoft and developed with their Live service...putting games ON LIVE...-see what I did there?

We all know its going digital in the end, but how we get there is the interesting part.

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Digital Downloads

posted by Martin ZXGamer May 06, 2009 at 2:32 pm
7
Martin ZXGamer

Hello

Regarding Digital Downloads, just one point.

Who is going to advertise gaming & will everyone download games?

Music Downloads do well because 1) people do not want to buy a CD where half the tracks are rubbish 2) They are only 79p each 3) the radio and TV etc are constantly broadcasting and advertising artists and tracks daily for free 4) Concerts do the same as radio i.e. people know about tracks without visiting a record store.

Film downloads do OK (though not as well as Music downloads), These again are broadcast in cinemas and the TV giving much free marketing exposure to many people though are more expensive and the files are larger to download.

Apple App Store games do well because they are cheap (59p to £5) and hence virtually disposable. File sizes are small too.

Console Games however are £35 to £40, are very big files and get absolutly no free exposure. Once the scope for sequels that people got to know in their now defunct branch of game dies out releasing new franches will be very difficult (especially ones that are not to do with movies). Casual markets could die altogether (casual mario gamers are unlikley to read gaming mags and gamespot etc). Game downloads will have to become much cheaper (£5 to £20 mark) to compensate for the loss of pre-owned (people may not like this but it does allow people to get new releases without paying full price). On top of lower sale prices publisher and format holders marketing spend will have to increase to offset the 'window display advertising' offered by retail.

OnLive will require huge investment and is this really the future, someone will hack it and we are back to the pirate bay debate, unfortunatly people do not value a digital file as much as a tangible CD and is wide open to piracy, the fact pre-owned exsists in a way offsets piracy, people have something of value, not a worthless file they lose when their console fails.

It is possible in my view games could die out for everyone except the hardcore gamers if they went 100% download, there is just no daily exposure unlike other media formats & they could end up forgotton by the mainstream.

Just my thoughts

Martin

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Wow, just wow.

posted by LeeC May 06, 2009 at 4:10 pm
8

"MCV becomes PS3 fanboy central" shocker...

Seriously, you people preaching the PS3 superiority are preaching to the wrong crowd here. Leave the fiction for the IGN's and Gametrailers of this world and let this site deal with facts.

Or perhaps ukdazza would like to explain how the PS3 is the only console able to upgrade the firmware, and how adding a BR drive to the 360 would make it equivalent to a console with a memory architecture deficiency.

Or maybe Paul could explain why the 360 would need a BR drive, when the future is "allegedly" digital distribution. If you're going to need a large HD for storing digital downloads, why would you need BR storage, when you could simply install games to the HD from multiple DVD's... you know, much like the PC.

Hey, now there's a concept, a hardware platform that is already ahead of the PS3 in capabilities, both for gaming and multimedia. It's upgradable to meet with growing demand, it's not limited by a single 2.5" hard drive for storage, it already has BR read AND write capabilities, it isn't crippled by restrictive memory architecture and EVERY version can have USB and card reading capabilities.

If there was a single platform that can cope with the future, then it most certainly isn't going to be a black box full of broken promises. "120fps gaming over dual HDMI in TrueHD" was the claim as far as I remember, so how many games run in native 1080p on the PS3 again?

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Current tech is well out of date.

posted by Earl May 06, 2009 at 4:23 pm
9
Earl

The 360 and PS3 already show there age and are miles behind PC's,

Very few games run in native 1080p, because the consoles are not powerful enough to maintain good frame rate.

What needs to be done is native 1080p at 60 FPS at its worst then we are on to a winner.

This with current hardware is not going to ever happen.

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Current Hardware???

posted by Chaos May 07, 2009 at 12:49 am
10
Chaos

With the current Hardware at its time of launch if i remember correctly they were leading the race against PC's. Now i know Consoles can never compete with PC's due to the ever increasing speed of technology. But the gap with current gen consoles and PC's is ridiculous. And better yet virtually no games run at their native 1080p that this generation promised and most importantly hardly any game runs full speed. And no 30fps is not full speed.

For consoles i believe the current state of graphical affairs is good enough. I just believe they need to improve the framerate of games so they are constatnt minimum 60. If need be lower the graphical requirements that causes the games to lose frames. Currently developers are sacraficing performance for graphics and i think thats definately the wrong way to go. It should be reversed with performance taking precedemce. Once you have the performance then touch up the game to the point where performance is not affected and you have a very enjoyable experience. Maybe i think like this cos im a retro gamer but hey graphics is not everything. I would rather have good gameplay and full speed frames and a cur in the graphical display than the vice versa....

Release games at 1080p and at 60frames per second and this generation can survive a couple more years but at the rate developers are going i would not be surprised if the next gen set of consoles were released 2010 fall.... Cos in its current state of affairs it is now needed in order to produce an enjoyable experince. Of course there is no stopping developers fopllowing the same mistake, however we can only hope and pray that developers do the right thing for us the gamers and deliver a experince that we expect and not this rubbish 20-30 frames we see today....

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Current hardware

posted by Kevin May 08, 2009 at 2:09 pm
11
Kevin

Erm, Gran Turismo 5 Prologue? Wipeout HD? both run at 1080p and 60fps, I think God of War 3 is said to run in 1080p also? These games do exist, just not many of them.

But do you blame the developers, not a lot of TVs in peoples homes are capable of 1080p yet, although this is steadily increasing as 1080p is becoming fairly standard in large TVs now (only a tiny amount of TVs were capable of 1080p back when the consoles were first released). So why would a developer concentrate on making a game 1080p and compromise graphics elsewhere for something that not a lot of people with benefit from?

PCs are good, I respect the PC, they can achieve much higher levels of graphics, but how much would a PC of cost you back in 1997 to run Crysis at 1080p with 60fps? How much would a PC capable of this cost today for that matter? On top of that in order to keep running the latest graphics you have to continually upgrade to saty on top. Its a totally different market so you can't really compare them.

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Current Hardware

posted by Chaos May 08, 2009 at 7:27 pm
12
Chaos

I wasnt really comparing them i was just showing the difference. As you say it would be foolish to compare the 2 hardware. The simple fact is with PC's if its old you can upgrade and that is simply not an option with consoles. What i am saying is that yes you are right in 1080p not being the standard yet, and as such it seems 720p is the standard that so far most are settling for with 1080p being for the higher tier. However when you look at triple A titles like Halo 3 which do not even run at 720p then there is a problem.

All i was saying was lower the graphical rate ont he games and improve the framerate to 60. You named 2-3 games. How many games regradless of resolution run at 60 fps? Im guessing a handful. To me that is disgraceful. All software developers care for is eye candy and nothing else. Set 720 as the resolution get it running at 60fps and then if there is margin for graphical increase then do that. I would be far more happy with that product then the waste thats being spouted out these days. FPS at 30fps make me sick as in motion sickness after a while. 60fps i can play double the time and be fine.

The current hardware is fine in my opinion. They need to stop pushing and improve the system.

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Current Hardware

posted by Chaos May 08, 2009 at 8:10 pm
13
Chaos

I wasnt really comparing them i was just showing the difference. As you say it would be foolish to compare the 2 hardware. The simple fact is with PC's if its old you can upgrade and that is simply not an option with consoles. What i am saying is that yes you are right in 1080p not being the standard yet, and as such it seems 720p is the standard that so far most are settling for with 1080p being for the higher tier. However when you look at triple A titles like Halo 3 which do not even run at 720p then there is a problem.

All i was saying was lower the graphical rate ont he games and improve the framerate to 60. You named 2-3 games. How many games regradless of resolution run at 60 fps? Im guessing a handful. To me that is disgraceful. All software developers care for is eye candy and nothing else. Set 720 as the resolution get it running at 60fps and then if there is margin for graphical increase then do that. I would be far more happy with that product then the waste thats being spouted out these days. FPS at 30fps make me sick as in motion sickness after a while. 60fps i can play double the time and be fine.

The current hardware is fine in my opinion. They need to stop pushing and improve the system.

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GAMING ON EVERYTHING

posted by james braselton Aug 20, 2009 at 6:25 pm
14
james   braselton

HI THERE YOU ARE SOO WAY OFF YOU WONT HAVE ONE GAMING CONSOLE BUT YOU WILL PLAY ON ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING COMPUTERS CELLPHONES PORTABLE GAMING CONSOLES THE REGULAR GAMING CONSOLE VERTUAL CONSOLES HALO DECKS AND GAMING USEING WI-FI BRAIN ACESS AND ANY THING THAT SCI-FI HAS NOT EVEN THOUGHT OF YET

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