Though outspoken analyst adds that all three platform holders are “winners” this generation
As part of his report that outlined the true scale of the North American pre-owned software market, Wedbush Morgan’s analyst Michael Pachter has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons by predicting that PS3 will ultimately overtake Xbox 360’s install base in this generation of machines.
Crediting the Blu-ray alliance’s victory over Toshiba in the hi-def disc market, Pachter expects the PS3’s user base to have overtaken Xbox 360’s by 2015.
Indeed, more specifically he claims that Wii will have captured a 49 per cent share of the market across North American and Europe by the end of 2009, with Xbox 360 claiming 29 per cent and PS3 22 per cent.
However, by the end of 2011 he expects Sony and Microsoft to be neck-and-neck on 26 per cent.
“We think that the PS3 will capture significant market share, primarily due to Sony’s victory in the high definition DVD format war, and will end up in second place by 2015,” Pachter predicted.
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“Although Microsoft’s Xbox 360 enjoyed a first mover advantage, we think that its market position will fade to third place due to lack of penetration in Japan.”
However, Pachter wisely points out that even if Xbox 360 does end up being outsold by both of its rival platforms, the machine has been anything but a failure for platform holder Microsoft.
“Notwithstanding the projected finish, we truly believe that all three manufacturers should be considered ‘winners’, with Microsoft selling twice as many Xbox 360s as Xbox’s and building a robust Xbox Live business, and with the other two companies generating significant profits from their respective shares.”
Comments
This...
...is probably true, no doubt about it, but wouldn't both Sony and MS have a new console out by then? MS definitely will, as thats 10 years after the 360 launched. I'm a little lost with this statement really :S
Winning The DVD Format War?
This confuses me as I was under the impression the recently announced compression technology allows a dvd to have five times the content of the original making Blu ray quality products possible on a new type of DVD discs which are compatible with current dvd players, if this is true then how will winning the DVD format war help both PS3 and Xbox 360 machines can play DVDs which puts them on a level playing field. I may be going on a tangent but I think my point is valid, correct me if im wrong.
wtf !
god this battle is getting boring ! 5 years for the ps3 to beat the 360 console yawn a rama, even the ps3 fanboys will know that ms will have replace the 360 by then, how can this guy tell what the future is going to be in 5 years ?
i think people just maake this stuff up to get some free advertising when we all start arguing about, tell you what i reckon in 5 years time gaming will have changed no idea how but it wont be the same it never is, i also reckon jeremy clackson will be prime minster ( dont laugh if boris johnson can be mayor who knows what else can happen ) i am going to win the lottery and marry paris hilton or some other hot babe lol, thats just as likely as all the other bs that these people keep coming up with. over to the fanboys in 3... 2... 1... go
Two penneth
This makes me think two things:
A) It's not true.
B) Nobody cares.
It's as good as saying that for the next 6 years, Xbox 360 will dominate PS3, which is actually a more newsworthy and contentious statement to make.
I've no idea what gaming will be like in 2015 but I know for a fact I won't care if the PS3 is outdoing the Xbox 360 for business.
*yawn*
Hey Pachter, get a real job.
Pachter strikes again
Pachter's predictions over the years have about a 50% success rate which proves you might as well flip a coin rather than ask him. He predicted that the DS and Wii would flop massively (although to be fair he wasn't on his own there) and has consistently said that the PS3 would come out on top.
Pachter
Let's see, Pachter predicted the PS3 would outsell the 360 in 2007, again in 2008, and yet again for 2009. Now that none of those prognostications have come true, he's prediciting it will finally happen in 2015? Nothing in the sales trajectory of either of these consoles leads me to believe that is correct. Blu-Ray, which was originally supposed to be the savior of PS3, is not doing so well, being matched by digital downloads. The PS3 is also no longer the go to piece of kit for a Blu-Ray player anyway, since there are much cheaper players out there. That leaves the PS3 as the most expensive and least cost-reducable system on the shelf that doesn't seem to have any more real horse power than the competition, difficult development support, and with waning support from 3rd parties. What part of that equation spells success for Sony?
Ridiculous, as usual
Pachter is ridiculous, as usual.
I predict PS3 will trump 360 by 20...20 !
On a serious note, how can MCV continuously report this clown ?
Pachter smoking good stuff!
Man, this guy is so high on Sony for so long... whatever he's smoking has a Sony logo on it and clearly, it's mind numbing. Anyone know where to get some?
He seems to forget...
Yes, Blu-Ray won the format war, but what has that got to do with continued PS3 sales?
You can already buy standalone players as good as (and better) for less money. Virtually every new BR player now has internet connectivity, firmware upgradable etc... and that's not including exclusive features the PS3 does not have. Is there going to be a firmware upgrade to remove the region locking from the PS3 DVD playback anytime soon? I suspect not, yet there are already players that allow people to play ALL their DVD collection, regardless of region.
I suspect he is banking on Microsoft releasing a new console in maybe 2 years time, thereby giving the PS3 3 years to overtake the 360, because everyone will be buying the new console, not the old 360.
The more worrying thing than MCV giving this bloke print space, is that Sony actually pay this guy to do his job this badly. How I wish I could get that kind of job.
WOW! Xboxers galore here!
Wow, who really cares about the Blu-ray and DVD playability, the games are where it's at.
And man, are all you guys Xboxers commenting here??? Because you are sucking up real bad.
Anyway who cares what the other console is doing, if you own a 360 (or are a microsoft fan, of which i wouldnt say there are many) or a PS3, are are really worried about what the other fan-base/console company is doing then you really deserve that irritating, childish nametag of 'FANBOY'!!!
What a donkey
So basically he's basing his analysis on a feeling, which is likely clouded by personal preference. Putting aside the extreme likelihood that the 360 will have been replaced by then, this kind of judgement comes down to 1 thing, the quality of the games, and Microsoft has that tied up. This isn't Sega vs Nintendo based on who gets the most out of their 16 bit machines, the 'bit' rate is out the window now consoles are using adapted PC technology, the variables are too great, PS3 excels in some areas, 360 others, but when you get down to it, Microsoft has the vastly superior games library, and only Sony making headway in that department will truly change how things stand.
Overstating...
Rain also falls from the sky, Water is Wet, and the Sun rises in the east !!!
Who pays these people there wages, they need there bumps felt!
Of course the PS3 will overtake, MS will have moved on by then, stands a chance Nintendo will also and to be fair also a fighting chance on the PS4 been very close to release then also.
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