Wow. I wish they didn't plan in advance to release new consoles. It's like the ship one, with the plans in mind to write it off in a few years, and force us all to go out and buy more of their product, unless we want to lag behind.

Yeah how dare they force us to buy new hardware?! I hate when they put a gun to my head and force me to buy all these new things!

Would be a very brave company indeed to release a games console without some form of optical disc drive next gen. Even in 2 or 3 years time I still cannot see the broadband infrastructure being in place to support a download only device. What might happen is something similar to the strategy used by Sony in regards to the PSP. For the first half of the next console generation you would have a disc based console only. Then half way through it's life they release a download only console with no optical drive similar to PSPGo... Even at that time I would still think it unlikely but you never know!

I agree with geeQ. If by 2012 most of the UK is only guarenteed a 2mb connection, with current uk average at 4.6mb, i'd dread to be downloading a dvd or blu-rays worth of information over the net. On my super speedy 0.4mb connection, yes less than 1mb, even downloading a wiiware game, which tops at 40mb is a chore!!

If someone does take the leap with no optical media the reliability better be spot on or external storage for backing up (easily and cheaply, with as few DRM hoops to jump through as possible) available. Imagine losing all your digitally distributed content in a RROD type situation. At least with the 360 you can easily just swap the drive over.

On my 3rd 360 BTW... so feel a little wary of a completely digital solution distribution wise.

I look forward to seeing how the PSPGo model works out.

And an independent watchdog has reported that UK broadband speeds are a lot slower than the ISP's are advertising - so in practice you won't downloading these things as fast as you may think anyway.

How is Carmack the Magnificent making a prediction? Johnny Carson is dead. I think he took his hermetically sealed envelopes with him too. Or maybe Ed McMahon took them. Please stop with the silly predictions.

I don't see technology being a hurdle anymore for downloaded games. Most PSN demos seem to be about 1 gig and some almost 2, but as they download in the background its never a concern. Developers could split their games into separate chunks which download while the user is still on the first level. Having said that I don't feel any home console will become download only anytime soon.

I can definitely see in the near future more and more movies and full length titles becoming available for download. - Well the new XBL update has paved the way for full Xbox 360 games to be downloaded, so it is the next logical step.

However, with Sony spending so much damn money and resources on manufacturing Blu-Ray and trying to make it out to be the best form of media distribution, would they really make a new console based solely on downloads?

I wouldn't put it past them - but I think it could damage their public image even more if they did something like this.

ALSO - Will download-only games work in the long run?
Thing is, right now if you hate a game or get bored of it, you can trade it in for a new game really easily.
Downloading new games is a bit of a risk. There's no way to get some money back if you really don't like it.

The only games I download are ones that I have played before (like at friends houses) or cheap small games - like on XBLA. I'd have to be really sure to download a full priced title.

If we accept that eventually in 5-10 years games will only be available via digital downloads, what is the future for Game Group?

They currnetly have over 1300 stores worldwide, with a £1.5Billion annual turnover.

Their shares are currently valued at 155p.

But they have no future.........

I sincerely doubt that Sony will be first out, they've always played the waiting game in generations...

Saturn > Playstation

Dreamcast > Playstation 2

Xbox 360 > Playstation 3

So more likely they'll wait for MS to make the first move.

Digital downloads will never work, unless more than one company is allowed to sell them to entice competition.

Noone will pay full price for an old game.

Plus some people will always prefer to have physical copies.

It's always the same thing, "everyone has broadband, so now we can go digital".

Ermm, no, the majority have crippled broadband with speed restrictions, bandwidth limitations, fair use policies etc... Do these people live in some strange Utopia where none of this exists?

I am actually tempted to email my ISP and get their reaction to one of the potential scenarios. I might ask them "if I was to download 2 50GB ConsoleZ games, play for 3 hours a night on Onlive (streaming 1080p gaming), plus streaming a movie or two, what would be the result?". My guess is, the answer would be something like "you'd be finding a new ISP" or more likely "we'll put you on capped download speed and restricted bandwidth for several months because the internet isn't just for your use, it's for everyone".

I am quite convinced there must be a defined moment in time, where a huge percentage of the senior members of the games industry, collectively took stupid pills. It's either that, or their greed obsession is getting severely out of hand and it needs to stop, before they kill the industry completely.

In response to the previous post,

"Wow. I wish they didn't plan in advance to release new consoles. It's like the ship one, with the plans in mind to write it off in a few years, and force us all to go out and buy more of their product, unless we want to lag behind."

Apple does this regularly with all of its products. How many of us have bought an iPod or laptop just to realize that the new one is released within the same year?

Lets face it, digital downloading has now existed for a number of years on the most accessible digital platform in existence - the PC. Publishers would not dream of stopping disc based sales which still grossly outnumber digital sales on the PC.

Then look at the busiest period of the year, Q4 where 70% of disc based sales are for gift. Consumers are not going to gift digital downloads anytime soon - I haven't seen a Steam gift card on the shelves in my local supermarket yet next to the iTunes ones.

The only change I've noticed since the introduction of digital downloads has been a drop on retail price - with the average PC game now priced at £30.

Certainly digital downloads will become an option, but I just can't see it having this massive impact on next gen platforms that everyone is worried about. We are talking about games starting at 5GB and reaching 50GB. Most broadband customers have a fair use policy of just 3GB. Everyone is watching very carefully as BBC negotiate with ISPs over iPlayer traffic - with the best solution being BBC putting their own equipment in ISP exchanges and advanced caching techniques (the latter is certainly an option for game distribution).

So now we come to the PSPGo, where digital distribution makes perfect sense. Piracy is rife on both the DS and PSP, games are tiny (as little as 5MB on the DS). It's the same reason the portable CD, mini-disc or cassette players are dead - a smaller, lighter, higher capacity digital music player makes far more sense. That doesn't stop us having high end music systems at home though, or dvd and blu-ray players - where portability and accessibility is not an issue. It's not a hassle changing a CD in your living room, it is on the tube into work.

Anyway, better do some work now - seeing as all us indys are obviously all going to be closing within 3 years due to a rise in digital distribution.

If one of the consoles dont come with optical then it wont sell good at all, show me one internet connection that will be able to download 50GBs games in mere hours, not days. not to mention everybody wanting to look they're HD movies thru their consoles

And plus PS3 wont release a new console anytime soon PS3 will be around for a very long time indeed.....

Lets not be too harsh on Carmack. As a programmer he lives in a world that is used to thinking in seconds. Where as most of us live in a world that communication wise is governed by BT, and they think in decades. :)
My point is I think Carmack is slightly out of touch with the reality of the situation. Were BT to get their act together and begin implementing a nationwide fibre optic infrastructure then Carmacks prediction would at least technically be more viable.

theres no way the next consoles will be DD only.
1 because download limits are too low, most people i know are on 5 GBs per month, most ps3 games are triple that size if not more.
how am i going to get the next MGS game i assume it will be bloody big im not downloading 40GBs+.
download limits are no where near enough, until download limits average around 50GBs per month, and until there dirt cheap, until that happens DD wont happen.
im on 15Gbs and its costing me allot what if i want to download 4 games?
my whole download usage is gone on games, no music, no videos, no surfing the web all gone on games.
download only is a long long long way away.

Digital downloads is the future, I do think Sony's next console will come without a disc drive. I bet the likes of HMV and GAME are shitting it...

That strange utopia people speak of is basically anywhere but the UK. The UK is a joke compared to the rest of Europe. I have a friend in Slovenia currently on a 60/60 connection. Thats ~ 7.5MB a second. Download time for 50GB is ~2h. His ISP also offers him any speed up to 100Mb for 1 Euro per Mb.

The UK is running an infrastructure crippled by BT and its terrible 21st Century Network ideas that were already outdated when they were planned.

Digital Downloads ARE the future.