I look forward to a time where all our games are DL only. Okay, itll hit the retailers and distributers but thats not my problem, infact cutting out the middle man will be good for the industry.

Everyone knows the change is coming but not for many more years PSP Go is the best example of things moving to fast.

i think prices for games would have to be hugely reduced for people to be attracted to digital downloads.

as much as people hate it trade-ins give many customers the extra money to purchase brand new games.

And with the cost of making games going up every year could square Enix, Ubisoft etc afford to sell games at say £20 (no supermarkets to take a £10 loss on each game on digital download)

just a thought.

The changs is coming a lot faster than you think, its only the likes of Don McCabe and likewise panicking retailers whinging about PSP GO and a DLC future that says otherwise.

I'm not sure how he is seeing the future. A vast reduction in physical media is a possibility and in some cases a good thing. Take the Live Arcade games on Xbox. You simply wouldn't get those sort of games from a physical retail. They're too small and cost too much. However, I'm a bit of a freak with these things and much prefer to actually ownb the physical media of a game and so you won't catch me buying GTA IV and downloading it to my HDD.

Also, I'm not quite understanding his idea that console will no longer be required. What exactly is it we'll be playing games on? Playing games form a server sounds a bit like PC gaming to me, and the problem with that is ensuring that the hardware you use is capable of running the game. That's the advantage of a console. It's a fixed hardware platform with a game designed and built to run on it, as opposed to PC games which normally require some of the most powerful graphics cards and such to work.

I don't think we'll ever see the end of a console type platform but we may see a change in the way it is used!

The day the industry go's download only is the day we alienate many potential customers in the future, people have and will always need a physical product even if it’s just to satisfy their psyche and convince them there purchase was worth the money they paid.
Developers and publishers will have us by the balls as we will no longer have control over the products we pay for, traditions such as playing a game round a mate’s house or renting a game out will disappear. The lack of a physical product will also sever the emotional link some consumer’s experience when they play a game, with no physical connection between developer and customer there will be no link in which customers will be able to relate to, the divide between the two will grow further apart ruining what makes this industry so great!

I doubt dlc will be the norm. Imagine Halo 4, millions of people downloading the game at the same time, the servers will probably crash and delay the game. And i am using fios and it is still quite slow. Downloading a game like mgs4 will still take a few hours. And i still like owning a physical copy.

Anyone who thinks that games will come down in price just because there is no physical product are kidding themselves. Cutting out disc production, packaging shipping etc will see that cash diverted to advertising and funding for the different means of distribution and new tech.

Digital Downloads will do nothing to lower prices. Computers were invented to lesson our workload. Did that happen? What happened to the 4 day work week we were promised with the Computer era? Same with DD. No used games, no hunting for the best value, no broken street dates. Searching for a head to get game is a part of the fun. All these items will be gone once DD takes hold. Not to mention ownership will cease to exist. Meh.

can anybody actually imagine what life will be like in 2020? i think he's pretty close to the bone here, the lines between console and PC gaming are drawing closer together, especially given the PS3s attempts (albeit half arsed attempts) to cover some PC functionality. you could install an O/S on earlier models, although the function was removed from the slim as it was probably a waste of time. i personally upgraded my PS3 HDD and installed Linux but it was a pain in the bum and i'm not great with code ect. not only that but you have to switch the console off if you wanna switch from Linux to the game OS and vice versa. rubbish.

however, what i wouldn't give for a PS3 that can do everything i use my PC for as well. i'm not a heavy user, just photos, music, the odd film and browsing, and i'd like one machine that does it all. the PS3 tries to do all that but it's just not quite up to scratch.

thank about it. 10 years ago if i wanted to play MSG i'd have to change discs half way through. last week i installed it on my PSP. in another 10 years? who's to say, but it's easy to imagine that in that time i could install MGS4 on my PSP 7,000,000 or whatever the portable device is at that time. ten years is a long time in gaming.

It makes perfect sense to me. However the only stumbling block are the Internet providers. They will be more and more regulated. The Internet has become a huge problem for trafficking, piracy and illegal activities. So the government will get their prying eyes more involved. With that said we will see more caps in the amount we can download but hopefully we won't be affected too much on the upload so that online gaming doesn't become an issue.

When you take out the hardware you give consumers more freedom. The way the business model is now doesn't make a whole lot of sense. This is why MS, Sony and Nintendo have a vested interest in keeping certain games only playable on their platform. When you take away that hurdle of paying $2-600 for a game console then you have a larger market to sell too. Some may say that takes away competition. I disagree. The competition will still be there where it matters most and that's the software. We will also see innovation and growth within the technology. Just like we saw growth from VHS to DVD to blu-ray. The market won't allow more than one format as we have seen with Betamax and HD DVD. So why do we continue allowing multiple game platforms that only play certain games?

I say bring it on with the digital distribution. However they need something in place for trade ins and the games themselves need to be more affordable.

Well Mr Wada may ultimately be right about his prediction, but I think 10 years is a little ambitious. I think to be safe he should double that number for 2 reasons. 1. The amount of data that will need to be downloaded and sent to the living room will be huge. Advanced compression techniques will of course help but in 10 years we will all be used to 1080p/60 output from all our games. In addition to the general increase in 3D graphics that will have been brought about by XBox720 and PS4 by then. 2. Our broadband infrastructure's will simply not be up to the job of providing the kind of bandwidth required to allow full streaming real-time gameplay with all the processing done server side and just a 'dumb' terminal at the customer end... No Mr Wada I'm afraid you've been playing FFXIII too much recently, time for a reality check.

i don't see a problem with this....the future is coming weather or not we want it to or not...but the only problem i see is that only a small amount of people (as surprising as this is) actually have the internet in there homes. there is still a very large amount of people that dont have it so if game distribution becomes download only how will those people get the game.
this is why the psp go failed before it was released (besides being a terrible product and just a rebuilt N-Gage {if anyone remembers those)

but what happened to the predictions 10 years before.... virtual reality games. flying cars(well thats from the 60's) artifical intelligence that co-mingles with us. Those still arn't and as for the VR some pop up here and there but there terrible and dont do well at all.

3D gaming is predicted as well but 3D movies suck so what makes me what to play a game like that wearing dorky glasses that look gay.

but i like the idea of digital download because of the fact it can put places like gamestop out of commission.....i don't buy there to begin with just because they rip off people and screw people out of money. tho DD can potentially bring down the price of games it wont be by much due to the fact that it still costs a lot to make a game...to pay the developers pay for the computers advertising so they could drop from 60 bucks a pop to 30 or 40 bucks it would still be better than 60.

also some of you were talking about servers and bandwidth...and as much as that is a factor a lot of developments in those can be made in ten years so those may not be to much to worry about in ten years.
back when windows 95 and such were around and someone said that in ten years windows 7 will be out with all the advacments we have today blu-ray hd tv's and such everyone would have doughted it so don't shun the thought just yet and it's a prediction anyway it's not like he is guaranteeing that it will happen.

Music - Tick (itunes and many others)
Video - Tick (Video on Demand, iPlayer, Itunes Movies)
Games - Tick very very soon (Consoles with big hard disc, ummm why the big hard disc?)

Although people said the same about Music and Video download WILL NEVER HAPPEN, well guess what it has. Deal with it!

Saying it is too far away is burying your head in the sand!

There will always be the die hard "Vinyl Club", and they will be mostly irrelevant.

Digital distribution only, streaming media only, DRM out the ass, enduser owns nothing but a dumb terminal, no such thing as "used" game sales, membership fees just to access the online game store-before you even "buy" a game for an allotted time, and a lot of other evil. This is the future of video gaming, like it or not. The front end immediacy will sell it to the masses. All that stands in the way is a bit of time.

So, yeah any comments on The Last Remnant for Ps3, since you know its only been a year now since you released it on Xbox 360 and you said it would be a cornerstone for your worldwide strategy.

Anyone that's been following the technological market even a little bit would know that those comments couldn't possibly be further off the mark. Digital Distribution is not ready to take over in 5, 10 or even 20 years. The only people that Digital Distribution would help is fat, lazy people who can't be bothered walking to the shops. For normal people who still manage to get outside the demand for physical media far outweighs the want for digital streaming, especially at current Broadband speeds.

Physical media will not be replaced during out lifetime, i'd put money on that.

You dont have to be fat just because you want Digital Distribution, Nor lazy. Its just a matter off what you prefer.

You imbacile

consoles: squarenix set for extinction.
fixed

bye bye wada

David Macphail, youre quite the prat with your sweeping generalisations and misguided musings.

@David Macphail

Drive to the supermarket to buy a game and then sit like a couch potato playing it for hours!

I am going to take your money and buy you a digital dog for walkies.

What a load of twaddle! Made me laugh though, give you that!

Re: Comment no 7

FIFA 10 - PSP £14.99 (Game Website)
FIFA 10 - DS £14.99 (Game Website)
FIFA 10 - iPhone £3.99

Do the math pal!

Here's my take on it: I only buy console exclusives, for everything else i buy on the PC.

I've got more titles for my PC, than my consoles and more than three-quarters of my PC games are digital downloads.

I'd welcome the death of home consoles and would welcome a gaming service equivalent of cloud computing. Also, it'll get rid of all the fucking bickering console fanboys. The net is full of the scumbags.

It's inevitable the industry is going down the digital downloads path and i welcome it.

JB and You Are Stupid - maybe if you two prat - tastic imbeciles got out of the house more you wouldn't be so offended by my comments, instead of living in your mothers basements like a pair of diseased trolls.

Captain Scarlet - are you the misguided person that used on - demand music and video as an example??? CD's and DVD/Blu - Ray discs have not been REPLACED by Digital Distribution, genius. Physical copies of film releases outsell digital copies by a country mile, further proof that more people want to walk to the shops to buy it then sit at home 24 hours a day until their legs fall off.

I'll bet you order your shopping online as well......then when it arrives you roll to the front door and just ask the guy to put it in your mouth, heck, why bother chewing? That's too much work.......maybe they could just inject the food directly into your stomach so you won't even have to move anymore.

David, at which point did yiou decide that the only people who use online shopping or DLC for enertainment medium are obese individuals who never leave the house?

Like I said, naught but sweeping generalisations from a blinkered fool. I look forward to your next scientific findings professor.

I think a few things are needed first,
100mb is the normal home broadband speed with almost no lag
if not then local download with thin clients is still going to be needed, but with large, terrabyte + drives.
The convenience of consoles is that its easy to just stick a disc in and play, not wait 45 minutes for a download then have a pause regularly on line when downloading more data for each level/map/whatever.
The one thing that games have over music/DVDs is that games are much more interactive and much more data is needed at any point in time. Streaming video where you can rewind/forward isn't too big a deal, a free roaming game with a map the size of flashpoint where multiple players can go in different directions & affect the other players' surroundings is another thing.

But then again, 10 years in computing is a *long* way away. It just depends on if we go cheap fibre optic in the home with powerful PC's /Consoles or go ultra eco friendly due to having to cut down electricity usage.

@ JB - i just don't think it would be much of a world if everybody ordered everything online and never had any reason to go outside. Do you really think closing down videogame retail outlets to make way for Digital Distribution would be a good idea? How about we close down the supermarkets as well, then? Or the Post Office - who needs that when we have uber - awesome E - Mail??? Digital Distribution as an ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION is fine but when you get people predicting the scrappage of physcial media altogether.........i just can't see it benefiting ANYBODY.

I suppose it's all about money at the end of the day, so consoles and games on disc will be a thing of the past. But I'd prefer to own a game on disc rather than download it. And what do we do if say we want to go back to old games? I still have a mess about with my Super Nintendo, basically games that came out 15 years ago. And if anyone thinks that game downloads will be cheaper, you're living in the clouds because that's never going to happen. Publishers will find excluses to justify charging £40+. What will happen is game will end up costing around £60, then when the download thing happens, they'll drop them back down to around £40. And most people are daft enough to pay silly prices for games anyway, more so in the UK. I once worked in the gaming industry so I know all the tricks...

What a brilliant way to create stronger competitors! All this is going to do is open a huge gap in the gaming world for smaller companies to come in and take over the console industry. A good console and some decent first party and smaller third party games are all it would take to successfully get the console industry rolling again. Especially if digital distributors were still offering sales at full retail price. Why deal with the hassle of DRM, internet reliance, etc. when you can have a secure, physical copy for the same price? The consoles will see success and these bigger companies will be back to porting their software to them. In the meantime, Sony and Microsoft are going to look like enormous morons and have to scramble to develop a new console in order to compete again - which by that point someone else will have become the top dog.

I'm calling it now: If and when this happens, it will be remembered as one of the biggest marketing blunders ever. They might as well just shoot themselves in the foot.

I really hope the console does not die. If I were running a software company the death of consoles is great for my business. For the ISP the death of the console is great. For the consumer it is good and bad. The software maker stands to make a higher profit margin and have more control over their product. The ISP is now a required product so it definitely places them in a good position. The consumer on the other hand it is great i that you dont have to go to the store to purchase games but on the other hand what if your ISP goes down? Right now I can still play all my single player games but if they are being streamed to me I guess I am out of luck. What about being on the road can you get internet access for your kids in the mini van all over the US? I think the death of the console will greatly benifit the companies and benefit customers but if there is absolutely no download option and all games have to be played streaming it will have drawbacks for the consumer. I am not even going into the possible costs to the consumer is it a per month fee buy the game once yours forever will prices get hiked up on you every month like tv?

The potential is certainly there but who's gonna jump on this. Certainly not me or any of my 200 gamer friends. It's too easy to get screwed by the Distributor, servers shutting down, not enough servers, cost. That's right, the cost will be passed down to the consumer, not in the form of price per game but simply the price of access and service can easily exceed $15 per month.

I think he is talking about "OnLive" which hit's America in the next few weeks. Have a look at GDC's 2009 convention.
Basically instead of having a console/PC to run you games, all you need is a web browser. Games run on super computers/ servers and is streamed to your TV/PC/Laptop at less than 1 millisecond (basically instantly). There is no need for downloading the games, all you need to do is download a plug-in for the browser which is 1 MB.
Even the most basic low end PC's will be able to play games like Crysis and Uncharted 2 etc because it is not running on your hardware.
Do some research on it guys, it looks really good.

Some people do not have wireless internet or internet still & rely heavily on the consoles to play games. I am one of them, in the process of building my computer in order to get a gaming computer/pc for myself. I can't wait either. I do not like the psp go. It is high priced for lacking a few features. Not worth MY money. But to others it is a deal. Now hopefully there will be people that will progress over to digital downloads, but the ones that don't will hurt heavily. & the gaming companies could lose money. Now him talking about in 10 yrs, that should be enough time for more people to get more wireless internet.

OnLive is still a poor idea, and here's why: If the servers are down, you don't play. If you can't access the servers, you don't play. When the game is discontinued, you never play again. It's basically the online gaming model, but carrying over to single-player games as well. And there won't even be a physical disk like World of Warcraft. You're buying a license to play a game but you can only play so long as the supporting company has it. Basically, you're renting.
Profit wise? Very smart idea, in theory. In practice? I think the big companies are becoming deluded, thinking they're the only ones in existence. How long before Sega says "Hey, look! No competitors!" and makes the Dreamcast 2, which becomes a huge hit because you OWN the game you pay for at the same price? Plus you get all those cool physical things that you don't get with the digital. You can play the game for as long as you have a console to play it, at your own whim, you can take it with you anywhere you want, etc.

It's a novel idea, but I think developers have forgotten that it's the consumer that drives the market, not them. But deserting the console market, they're just creating a huge demand to fill the gap, and whoever fills that gap will be the next big gaming company at the top of the heap. Bank on it.

...but I'd rather not spend my money I work my ass off for on a game that, if I'm lucky and it's really popular, I'll only be able to play over a ten year span before the super computers - with the OnLive model - have it deleted to make room for the newer and "better" games. All you people that go back and play Final Fantasy VII for old times sake? You can forget about that experience with this idea. Modding, a huge factor in PC success? Watered down severely. Forget upgrading old games to look newer and feel proud, you'll only get to play what you are streamed.

OnLive can go do one.

Theres a certain irony to gamers and retailers who claim to champion the games industry running scared from its natural and obvious evolution.

I think that DLC and full product DL will continually grow and at some point in the future it will surpass Physical Media, but I do think that day is more than 10 years away, both systems have there merits,

People still buy LP's some artists prefer the format still, there are plenty of underground 7" still released. Some people drive cars that are over 25 years old, there is healthy trade in the spare industry. but these will one day fade out.

The only way the industry will speed things up is to force the issue, which could well be the case long term.

Isn't it odd that when people talk about the industry evolving the human element is always left out the equation except for the idea people will readily accept virtual media just because it's supposed to be the future?

@ Magnus

Sadly one of those human elements is price. If it is cheaper in the virtual media land then the human element will always point in that direction.

Because they make the software developers develop games for specific hardware specifications. If you want to have a good gaming experience on PC, you have to update your graphics card very very very regularly and this is exepensive. You can keep the same console for 3-5 years and still have a great gaming experience. This is why i think there will always be demand for consoles for the casual gamer

Consoles will never die. I can think of a 3 good reasons off the top of my head that can prove it.

#1 All about the money- People will always buy consoles, ALWAYS. Each company has their fanboys and these fanboys will go out and buy whatever system their companies put out. Basically, "if you build it, they will buy." It doesn't stop there either. Non fanboys will choose the console they prefer in that generation as well, for exclusives if nothing else.

#2 Convenience- Everyone knows it is more convenient to play on a console than a PC. The games are designed to run, and run well, on these consoles and that takes a massive load off of the consumer as they don't have to worry about server status and specs just to play the lates games. Now I believe that technology will advance over the years as well with new consoles. The idea of a easy replacable graphics card for consoles (similar the replacable HDD we already have) comes to mind. I wouldn't be suprised if in the future Sony and M$ will implement this for an easy system upgrade to lengthin the life of their current console. PC owners may call that a gimick, but they can't deny that the consumer would flock to the idea.

3. Motion sensing- Something new to the gaming world. First introduced by the WII and now making its way to other consoles through the PS wand and Natal. Now this idea is just kicking off and it still has some flaws, but in "10 years time" just imagine how much motion sensing will have advanced. There is no argument that motion sensing will be far less of a headache being played on a console rather than the PC. This alone is motivation to keep consoles going and with the life of new consoles, more traditional games will also be available for those who have no interest in the feature. As I said before, "if you build it, they will buy."

Don't get me wrong, DD will still play a major role in the gaming industry. We already have arcade games, PS1 hits, XBox classics, and more available in PSN and XBL. These two networks will continue to evolve and offer more to the consumer for whatever console generation we are in. Also, keeping certain DD content exclusive will also aid the keeping the consoles alive as well.

To all the PC gamers that think this idea is so great, I urge you to remember one thing. If it sounds to good to be true, it usually is. There is just to much going on in the industry to switch to pure DD. You talk of evoloution but you only look at one aspect of it insead of looking at the big picture. There will always be new ideas to lure in the consumer to buying consoles and thus consoles will never die.

Just my 2 cents.

No offense, but a lot of you have it wrong. Yes, things will shift to digital dist. and the psp go pushed it a little too hard and lost, but in terms of leaving consoles behind, he's referring to services like OnLive*, where the game isn't actually running on your hardware. You don't even have to download the game, all the graphics rendering and processing is done in "the cloud" (google cloud computing) and you just receive the output of your input. Theoretically this could be done on any hardware that can handle user input and display images, i.e. any computer or possibly even just an hdtv in the future. They can already handle a remote, why not a controller or a keyboard? For those naysayers, allegedly it's quite efficient, high quality games (including Crysis) can be played this way at 60 fps and with significantly less lag than you would expect. And this is in the early stages. Now I've never used the service myself, so I can't speak from experience, but that's what OnLive* is touting. Of course the real question is, can that hold up after this so-called "digital shift", when the cloud will be congested with significantly more traffic? As far as your own connection is concerned, OnLive* is saying 5 mbps is required for 1080p. Might seem like a lot, but some cable connections offer upwards of 8, so it's hardly unreasonable.

*http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3173413

Motion sensing is not a new thing in gaming...so are a lot of things console gamers seem to think. Flight sims have been using irTracker years before Wii or Natal. Sure it is limited to tracking your head movements but the idea is there - It senses motion. Even Natal is simply an advanced version of a PC web cam - don't try to deny that.
Upgrading 3d card for the consoles is not impossible but that would asked this conundrum : If that is a reality in the future, should the consoles be called consoles at all? Once keyboards and mice are allowed for the consoles that would confound the conundrum even more.
Or are they going to emulate Apple and say it is not a PC...it is something different although they haves the same function (play games, music, movies, surf) and have similar features (OS, upgradeable component, patches).