Sony's new NGP handheld will comfortably better the successes of the PSP, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich has stated.
"EEDAR has no doubt that the NGP will be successful in Japan," he said in a report. "In Japan the PSP currently has the second largest active install base and is on track to become the fifth bestselling home or portable console of all time in that country.
"The key to the NGP’s success, however, will come down to the adoption rates in the much larger North American and European markets. Given the current low adoption rates of the PSP in North American (22m units) and Europe (28m), EEDAR expects the NGP to handsomely surpass sales of its predecessor, the PSP.
"This is based on assumptions that the NGP: (i) is competitively priced, (ii) third-party publishers provide sufficient long-term original content and (iii) retail shelf space is adequate."
Divnich is predicting a retail price of "$299 to $349, but not to exceed $399 in the United States". This would translate to between £185-£250 in the UK. This would put it at the high end of the portable console price scale, though MCV has reason to believe that the debut price could exceed even these expectations.
"Observers tend to forget that the PSP was incredibly successful at launch in North America, selling more units in its first year than the Nintendo DS," Divnich added.
"Long-term, however, concerns about Sony’s digital strategy, lack of publisher incentive and piracy, ultimately resulted in a decreasing support from third-party publishers and a reduction in retail shelf space. EEDAR believes that the aforementioned problems of the PSP era will be resolved with the NGP.
"While the long-term success of the NGP may be difficult to predict, EEDAR is certain that the initial 18 months will produce significant hardware and software sales to support profitability for third-party publishers.
"Given such initial success, EEDAR recommends that publishers use the initial launch-thru-month-18 window as a timeframe to provide sufficient support for both ported and original titles to the NGP."