Next Generation reports that the study claims that the sector is simply not big enough to accommodate the number of titles that wish to enter it.
“The success of World of Warcraft from Vivendi Universal Games is leading to interest and investment in the segment that is far above what its current market size and usage can support,” the report states. “Perhaps the most important point to note is that there will be a great deal of money lost. Since the emergence of the current MMOG market, which we pegged as 1997, there have never been more than a handful of hit products in a given market at the same time.
“Never in the over 30-year history of massively multiplayer games has there been more than five top-line products in existence at one time in a given market. Even then, the top two or three games have always commanded between 85 per cent and 90 per cent of the market.
“The track record of small, independent efforts with MMOGs has not been good. The track record of large, corporate efforts in the online game realm might even be worse.”