Analyst: "Little risk of failure" for Old Republic

Bobby Kotick may have his doubts, but analysts are confident that Star Wars: The Old Republic is on course to attract millions of subscribers.

Activision boss Kotick spoke out against the EA MMO earlier this week, claiming that George Lucas will be the only one to benefit from the game’s release.

But Jesse Divniich, vice president of US research firm EEDAR disagreed, arguing that EA has a history of negotiating highly profitable deals.

"Based upon user commentary and consumer surveys, the profit potential for The Old Republic is high," he told Eurogamer. "We see little risk of failure for the Old Republic.

"Kotick’s comments are valid in the sense that licensors do take a piece of the pie and is an economical hurdle that entertainment has been struggling with for years. In the same respect, how successful would EA’s MMO be without the Star Wars brand?

"It’s a give and take scenario, but given EA’s historical ability to negotiate favourable licence terms, I don’t believe Lucas’ share is a detriment to the game’s profitability."

Divnich predicted The Old Republic would attract 3m subscribers by next June, while Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has slightly lower expectations at 1.5m. Both reason that such a userbase would be enough to guarantee the game is profitable.

Star Wars: The Old Republic is due for release on December 20th.

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