SuperData now reckons the new virtual reality sector will make nearly a third less money this year than it had originally forecast.
VentureBeat reports that while its previous prediction pegged 2016 VR sales at $5.1bn, it now believes $3.6bn is more realistic. It says the change is due to an overestimation of sales of both PC and mobile VR products, which includes Oculus Rift, HTC Vive and Samsung Gear VR.
The company says that the main culprit, however, is the limited number of VR-capable graphics cards on the market will peg Rift and Vive sales to around 2m between them, while tertiary devices and PlayStation VR should sell in the region of 2.6m.
However, the company still reckons VR will generate $40bn by 2020, in line with its previous estimates. It also predicts that 16.8m mobile VR devices will be sold by the end of the year, although this includes sales of the likes of Google Cardboard.
After conversations with key hardware and software companies, we are confident that our forecasts have been adjusted to more accurately reflect the VR market’s potential,” analyst Stephanie Llamas said. There is a lack of content in the beginning of a new media cycle, which is something that VR is facing now.
Software revenue will begin with just a half a billion dollars in revenue, growing slowly year-over-year until acceleration begins with (an estimated) $24B in 2020. Now that developers see VR’s potential they are clamouring for first-mover advantage leading software revenue to outpace hardware by 2019.”