2016 launch for Nintendo NX ‘a mistake under any scenario’

Analyst DFC has warned Nintendo about what it perceives as the danger of launching the NX console in 2016.

The platform holder has announced nothing beyond the name of its next machine. The specs, price and release date remain a mystery. What we do know is that Nintendo will reveal more details about the machine this year.

However, regardless of the specifics, any planned launch in 2016 would place the NX up against the storm of interest surrounding the VR trio of Oculus Rift, HTC Vive and PlayStation VR – and that’s a recipe for disaster, DFC predicts.

DFC believes that Nintendo launching a new system in 2016 would be a mistake and under any scenario the Nintendo NX will not have an impact on the market until late 2017,” it said.

Of course, our perception is likely to evolve as more details around price points and launch dates become available, but 2016 is looking to be a record year for the game industry. In reviewing 2015 the PlayStation 4 met our expectations while the Xbox One and Wii U slightly underperformed. Going forward DFC believes that the potential launch of a new Nintendo system as well as new VR devices, especially the PlayStation VR will have a negative impact on the Xbox One and Wii U.

Accordingly the market is open for the PlayStation 4 to have stronger sales and forecasts have been raised accordingly.”

Reports from Asia have suggested that a July 2016 release was being planned for the NX, while component suppliers have forecasted sales of up to 12m units for the machine by the end of the year – which would be a remarkable achievement, considering the Wii U has only accrued lifetime sales of 12.6m units.

In October it was reported that the first NX development kits had been sent out to studios. It’s certainly true that the hardware has been demoed to partners at expos.

There have also been an assortment of patents pointing to various technologies that could feature in the machine, including a modular cloud design and a controller with a screen covering its entire face. It seems very much the case that the NX will be designed both for playing at home on the TV and when out on the move.

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