PS4 will beat Xbox One in the next-gen console war, predicts US games analyst Michael Pachter.
But that doesn’t really matter, he says, because in ten years times console games will not be relevant.
During his speech at London Games Conference, he said he expects PS4 to sell 100 to 120m units in its lifecycle, Xbox One will sell between 90 – 110m units, while Wii U will sell just 30m units.
He gives PlayStation the edge because of its price and because "gamers do not want Kinect." But believes that Xbox’s TV functionality could be a killer app, especially if TV services offer a subsidy on the Xbox One consoles.
He added that Xbox One and PS4 may be ‘neck and neck’ if Microsoft changes its pricing.
He expects Wii U is ‘toast’. "We think 30m is where it is set. If you are a Nintendo fan bitching about my opinion on Wii U, stop, put your money where your mouth is and buy a Wii U."
But he says that he believes this will be the last console generation and that the console market can expect a 220 to 260m install base.
"I don’t think the console market will get any bigger. The console installed base has peaked," he told the room.
"Consoles may not be relevant in 10 years." He added: "We have expanded the market beyond the hardcore console owner. We now have ten times the audience over the internet, six times the audience over mobile.
"And I think one day you’ll get to play any game, anywhere on any device."
Pachter also said he is ‘surprised’ that physical game pricing has not increased with PS4 and Xbox One.
"Movies have gone up steadily, TV rights have gone up, music royalties have gone… but everyone seems to think we will get more and more games for the same price.
However, it wasn’t all bad news. He said that the Western games market is as big as it ever was thanks to digital content, and that games is now almost a fully accepted medium.