Strategy Analytics has predicted that PlayStation Vita will sell 12.4m units around the world this year – as long as Sony cuts the price of the hardware.
The prediction is based on the belief that Sony will – most likely in Q4 – cut the cost of the Wi-Fi console from its current $249.99 to just $179.99.
If a similar cut were to happen in the UK that would bring the console's price down to the sub 200 mark.
12.4m unit sales equates to around $2.2bn in revenue.
The real value of the PlayStation Vita is its drive for content revenue growth and its strategic position in Sony's entertainment ecosystem,” the firm's connected home devices analyst Jia Wu stated.
We believe that PlayStation Vita will cause Sony's 2012 portable console software revenue to grow by $800 million compared with 2011. Although it's too small a device to turn the company around in terms of financial contribution, we expect it to bring in $2 billion incremental revenue from both hardware and software sales in 2012.
Crucially the cross-platform availability of content will also boost Sony's position in competition with giants Apple, Samsung and Microsoft. Sony can leverage its console gaming business, which Apple and Samsung do not have, to build its online content cloud.
Despite the popularity of Xbox 360, Microsoft lacks a serious portable console and mobile gaming device. So with PlayStation Vita, Sony further strengthens its brand, device competition and future content reach - even if the console hardware itself will not generate much profit.”
Strategy Analytics goes on to point to the sales pattern of the 3DS. After an initially strong start, sales slowed to a fraction of what they were at first and were only rejuvenated once Nintendo cut the price.