Ad specialist Generation Media takes a look at historical TV marketing data to predict the level of screen advertising we might expect from video games during Q4...
PROJECTING THE SHAPE OF Q4 GAMES & CONSOLES TV MARKETING
Whilst there has been a trend in recent years to start campaigns earlier to raise pre-awareness, Q4 consistently stands out as the most important period in the video game marketing calendar.
In 2012 Q4 contributed 53 per cent of all individual TVRs achieved by the games market. One TVR is one per cent of a given audience (e.g. men aged 16 to 34).
We have TV data from January 1st to September 22nd 2013. By using the average contribution of this period from 2005 to 2012, we can project how this year's Q4 might look. Q4 2013 is expected to generate 54.4 per cent of all games TV ad pressure this year. However, with both next-gen consoles launching, it's perhaps more pertinent to look back to 2005/2006 for a better guide as to how Q4 will look.
PROJECTING THE YEAR-ON-YEAR DECLINE OF GAMES & CONSOLES TV ADVERTISING IN 2013
2005 marks the highest point where the latter stages of the year made the greatest contribution.
When the 360 launched, 61.6 per cent of the year's individual TVRs were deployed between September 23rd and December 31st. Based on current projections, the market is set to decline by 27 per cent year-on-year in 2013. However if Q4 behaves similarly to 2005, then this decline would be just 13 per cent.
In 2006 when the PS3 launched, the Q4 figure was 58.1 per cent. If this happens again, the 2013 decline would be reduced to 21 per cent.
With both next-gen consoles launching in Q4 2013, it would be reasonable to expect that Q4's contribution could exceed 2005.
In order for TV ad pressure to end flat year-on-year, then Q4 2013 would need to make up 66.8 per cent of the entire year's activity. PS4 and Xbox One should ensure a strong Q4. We will report back on the results.