EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich has predicted that the global install base of the PS3 will overtake Xbox 360 by the end of 2012.
Using a similar method to that used by MCV at the end of October when we made the exact same prediction, Divnich points out that since May 5.6m PS3s have been sold. This compares to 4.3m Xbox 360s.
With current overall sales standing at 41.6m for PS3 and 44.6m for Xbox 360, Divnich thinks PS3 needs only two more years to overtake its rival.
Unlike previous generations, I don't foresee third place being a ‘doom and gloom' scenario,” he told Industry Gamers. Even with it being in third place now the PlayStation 3 is an incredibly healthy platform.
It all comes down to the active installed base; a company can sell as many consoles as it wishes, but if consumers are not actively buying games, they are not part of the installed base's economic ecosystem. The PlayStation 3 doesn't have the same problem the GameCube had with its third place finish last generation.”
It's also worth noting that there are some territories where PS3 is unlikely to ever catch Xbox 360 owing to the popularity of Microsoft's machine – most notably North America and the UK.
But as MCV said last month, these numbers are hugely dependent on the market success of Move and Kinect. Microsoft's device is widely tipped to win the sales battle between the two new controllers, but whether that can lead to a surge in Xbox 360 console sales – as some have predicted – remains to be seen.
I believe both have met the minimum quality threshold set by consumers,” Divnich added. Now, it all comes down to marketing and third-party support, elements we know Microsoft is stronger with, for the moment. But the Move is in the right place, and just because it doesn't ‘sell' as many units as the Kinect doesn't make it an inferior product.
Long-term, there isn't any concern about the success of the Move, and much like what we witnessed on the Wii, this will be a slow burner that will eventually realise a large installed base over time.”